碳强度和水资源约束下2030年中国西北五省能源供给规划研究

司起步; 邱硕; 毕胜山; 吴江涛

doi:10.7652/xjtuxb202205004

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

碳强度和水资源约束下2030年中国西北五省能源供给规划研究

专题清洁燃烧 | 更新时间：2025-07-09

- 碳强度和水资源约束下2030年中国西北五省能源供给规划研究
- Energy Supply Planning of the Five Northwest Provinces in 2030 Under Carbon Intensity and Water Resource Constraints
- 西安交通大学学报 2022年56卷第5期页码：31-42
- 作者机构：
  
  西安交通大学热流科学与工程教育部重点实验室,西安,710049
- 作者简介：
  
  : 2021-10-26。作者简介: 司起步(1997—),女,硕士生
  毕胜山(通信作者),男,教授,博士生导师。基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51776171)
- 基金信息：
  
  : 2021-10-26。作者简介: 司起步(1997—),女,硕士生;毕胜山(通信作者),男,教授,博士生导师。基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51776171);陕西省重点研发计划资助项目(2020KW-021)
- DOI：10.7652/xjtuxb202205004
  中图分类号： TK01
- 网络首发：2022-05-10，
  
  纸质出版：2022
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
司起步, 邱硕, 毕胜山, 等. 碳强度和水资源约束下2030年中国西北五省能源供给规划研究[J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2022,56(5):31-42.

SI Qibu, QIU Shuo, BI Shengshan, et al. Energy Supply Planning of the Five Northwest Provinces in 2030 Under Carbon Intensity and Water Resource Constraints[J]. 2022, 56(5): 31-42.
司起步, 邱硕, 毕胜山, 等. 碳强度和水资源约束下2030年中国西北五省能源供给规划研究[J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2022,56(5):31-42. DOI： 10.7652/xjtuxb202205004.

SI Qibu, QIU Shuo, BI Shengshan, et al. Energy Supply Planning of the Five Northwest Provinces in 2030 Under Carbon Intensity and Water Resource Constraints[J]. 2022, 56(5): 31-42. DOI： 10.7652/xjtuxb202205004.

摘要

为了对碳达峰和水资源短缺形势下中国西北五省能源供给侧的合理配置进行全面把控

以便推进西北五省能源转型

实现低碳发展

以2017年为基期

以2018—2030年为预测期

利用长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型对西北五省的终端能源需求量进行预测分析

从供给侧出发

研究了西北五省2018—2030年在碳强度约束和水资源约束下的能源结构变革、能源供给规划、能源调度规划和产能建设规划。结果表明

发展可再生能源是未来西北五省实现碳达峰和碳中和的主攻方向

一次能源结构中原煤、油气和非化石能源的比例将从2017年的6:3:1变为2030年的3:3:4

终端能源结构中煤炭、油气和电力的比例将从2017年的5:3:2变为2030年的1:5:4; 能源生产方面表明煤炭产量仍呈上升态势

石油产量保持低速上升的趋势

天然气的增产潜力大; 电气化是未来发展的趋势

电力供应能力将持续增强

西北五省水资源的短缺将进一步遏制火电的发展。该研究可望在合理配置水资源的基础上为西北五省的低碳发展提供参考。

Abstract

For comprehensive control over rational allocation at the energy supply side

better energy transformation and low-carbon development in the five northwest provinces in the context of peak CO

emissions and water shortage

the LEAP model is used to predict the end energy demands of these provinces by taking 2017 as the base year and 2018-2030 as predictive period. Moreover

their energy structure reform

energy supply planning

energy dispatching planning and capacity construction planning in 2018-2030 are studied from th

e supply side under carbon intensity and water resource constraints. The results show that developing renewable energy will be the main mean for these provinces to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. In terms of energy mix

the proportion of raw coal

oil and gas

and non-fossil energy among primary energy will change from 6:3:1 in 2017 to 3:3:4 in 2030 and that of the coal

oil and gas

and electricity among the end-use energy will change from 5:3:2 in 2017 to 1:5:4 in 2030. In terms of energy production

the coal production is still on the rise

the oil production keeps a low growth trend

and the natural gas has great potential to increase production. Electrification is the trend of future development

power supply capacity will continue to increase

the shortage of water resources in these provinces will further curb the development of thermal power. This study is expected to provide theoretical reference for the low-carbon development of these provinces under the premise of rational allocation of water resources.

关键词

Keywords

references

胡健, 焦兵. 油气资源开发对西部区域经济拉动效应的比较研究: 基于陕西、四川、青海和新疆4省区的研究 [J]. 管理学报, 2008, 5(5): 655-658.

HU Jian, JIAO Bing. Stimulation effect on our western regional economy of developing oil and gas resources: a comparative study of tree provinces and an autonomous region in our western regions [J]. Chinese Journal of Management, 2008, 5(5): 655-658.

刘海燕, 方创琳, 蔺雪芹. 西北地区风能资源开发与大规模并网及非并网风电产业基地建设 [J]. 资源科学, 2008, 30(11): 1667-1676.

LIU Haiyan, FANG Chuanglin, LIN Xueqin. Wind energy resource exploitation and large-scale on-grid and off-grid wind power industrial base construction in northwest China [J]. Resources Science, 2008, 30(11): 1667-1676.

周扬, 吴文祥, 胡莹, 等. 西北地区太阳能资源空间分布特征及资源潜力评估 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(10): 1738-1749.

ZHOU Yang, WU Wenxiang, HU Ying, et al. The temporal-spatial distribution and evaluation of potential solar energy resources in northwest China [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(10): 1738-1749.

郝丽, 孙娴, 张文静, 等. 陕西省能源消费碳排放及脱钩分析 [J]. 水土保持研究, 2014, 21(5): 298-305.

HAO Li, SUN Xian, ZHANG Wenjing, et al. Carbon emissions and decoupling analysis on energy consumption in Shaanxi province [J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2014, 21(5): 298-305.

赵选民, 卞腾锐. 基于LMDI的能源消费碳排放因素分解: 以陕西省为例 [J]. 经济问题, 2015(2): 35-39.

ZHAO Xuanmin, BIAN Tengrui. Factor decomposition of carbon emissions from energy consumption of Shaanxi province based on LMDI [J]. On Economic Problems, 2015(2): 35-39.

黎水宝, 程志, 王伟, 等. 基于能源平衡表的宁夏二氧化碳排放核算研究 [J]. 环境工程, 2015, 33(12): 130-133.

LI Shuibao, CHENG Zhi, WANG Wei, et al. Accounting of CO2 emissions for Ningxia based on the energy balance [J]. Environmental Engineering, 2015, 33(12): 130-133.

王磊, 宋乃平. 宁夏经济增长过程中的碳排放分析与预测 [J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2011, 25(7): 23-27.

WANG Lei, SONG Naiping. Analysis and forecast on carbon emission in process of economic growth in Ningxia [J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2011, 25(7): 23-27.

汪菲, 王长建. 新疆能源消费碳排放的多变量驱动因素分析: 基于扩展的STIRPAT模型 [J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(2): 441-452.

WANG Fei, WANG Changjian. Examining the driving factors of energy related carbon emissions using the extended STIRPAT model based on IPAT identity in Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2017, 40(2): 441-452.

韦良焕, 于坤, 莫治新, 等. 西北五省温室气体排放核算及动态研究 [J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2017, 31(1): 32-37.

WEI Lianghuan, YU Kun, MO Zhixin, et al. Accounting and dynamics of greenhouse gases emissions in five northwestern provinces [J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2017, 31(1): 32-37.

董棒棒, 李莉, 唐洪松, 等. 环境规制、FDI与能源消费碳排放峰值预测: 以西北五省为例 [J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(3): 689-697.

DONG Bangbang, LI Li, TANG Hongsong, et al. Environmental regulation, FDI and energy consumption peak carbon emissions forecast: a case of five provinces in northwest China [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(3): 689-697.

邓小乐, 孙慧. 基于STIRPAT模型的西北五省区碳排放峰值预测研究 [J]. 生态经济, 2016, 32(9): 36-41.

DENG Xiaole, SUN Hui. Forecast of the northwest five provinces' carbon emission based on STIRPAT model [J]. Ecological Economy, 2016, 32(9): 36-41.

邢强. 西北五省经济发展与碳排放量的关系研究: 基于面板数据的分析 [D]. 兰州: 兰州财经大学, 2014.

龚新蜀, 李龙. 西北五省产业结构与碳排放量的关联分析 [J]. 工业技术经济, 2014, 33(4): 154-160.

GONG Xinshu, LI Long. Correlation analysis between industrial structure and carbon emission in five northwest provinces [J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2014, 33(4): 154-160.

郭卫香, 孙慧. 西北5省碳排放与产业结构碳锁定的灰色关联分析 [J]. 工业技术经济, 2018, 37(7): 119-127.

GUO Weixiang, SUN Hui. A grey correlation analysis of carbon emission and industrial structure carbon locked in northwest five provinces [J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2018, 37(7): 119-127.

中国工程院“西北地区工矿资源开发的用水和可持续发展对策研究”课题组. 西北地区能源(石油天然气、煤炭)工业用水对策研究 [J]. 水利规划与设计, 2003(3): 4-5.

Research group of “research on water use and sustainable development countermeasures for industrial and mining resources development in northwest China” of Chinese Academy of Engineering. Policy study of the water supply for energy resources(natural gas and coal)industry in north-west China [J]. Water Resources Planning and Design, 2003(3): 4-5.

孙廷容, 张洪波, 黄强. 西北水资源与能源工业可持续发展战略研究 [J]. 西北水力发电, 2004, 20(4): 9-12.

SUN Tingrong, ZHANG Hongbo, HUANG Qiang. A strategic study on northwestern China water resource and energy industry sustainable development [J]. Journal of Northwest Hydroelectric Power, 2004, 20(4): 9-12.

项潇智, 贾绍凤. 中国能源产业的现状需水估算与趋势分析 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(1): 114-123.

XIANG Xiaozhi, JIA Shaofeng. Estimation and trend analysis of water demand of energy industry in China [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(1): 114-123.

QIU Shuo, LEI Tian, WU Jiangtao, et al. Energy demand and supply planning of China through 2060 [J]. Energy, 2021, 234: 121193.

邱硕, 王雪强, 毕胜山, 等. 陕西省能源需求预测及其影响因素分析 [J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(S1): 921-926.

QIU Shuo, WANG Xueqiang, BI Shengshan, et al. Forecast of energy demand in Shaanxi province and analysis of its influencing factors [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(S1): 921-926.

路利平. 陕西省CO2排放影响因素分解及碳排放峰值预测 [D]. 西安: 陕西师范大学, 2017.

邱硕, 王雪强, 毕胜山, 等. LEAP模型下的陕西省节能与温室气体减排潜力分析 [J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2016, 50(11): 28-35.

QIU Shuo, WANG Xueqiang, BI Shengshan, et al. Analysis of energy conservation and GHG emission reduction potential of Shaanxi province under the LEAP model [J]. Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University, 2016, 50(11): 28-35.

马红祥, 刘大千. 甘肃经济增长率周期性分析与预测 [J]. 开发研究, 2019(5): 23-29.

MA Hongxiang, LIU Daqian. Periodicity analysis and prediction of economic growth rate in Gansu [J]. Research on Development, 2019(5): 23-29.

刘晓, 巫朝霞. 丝绸之路新疆经济预测研究 [J]. 石河子科技, 2019(3): 11-16.

LIU Xiao, WU Chaoxia. Study on the economic forecast of Xinjiang along the Silk Road [J]. Shihezi Science and Technology, 2019(3): 11-16.

中华人民共和国生态环境部. 中国应对气候变化的政策与行动2018年度报告 [R/OL]. [2021-09-24]. http:∥www.mee.gov.cn/ywgz/ydqhbh/qhbhlf/2018 11/P020210303510160595227.pdf.

温胜芳, 单保庆, 马静, 等. 水资源缺乏地区地表水环境承载现状研究: 以京津冀和西北五省(自治区)为例 [J]. 中国工程科学, 2017, 19(4): 88-96.

WEN Shengfang, SHAN Baoqing, MA Jing, et al. Surface water environmental carrying capacity in water-deficient areas: a case study on Jingjinji and the five northwestern provinces and autonomous regions in China [J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 2017, 19(4): 88-96.

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

水蒸气掺混对氨裂解气旋流燃烧与排放特性的影响研究

融合物理信息与深度算子网络的变压器绕组热-流场快速计算方法

电动车辆间接热系统快速除湿响应迟滞机理及优化控制策略

冷库水平空气幕热湿阻隔性能数值模拟研究

EBSILON软件在热电联产系统优化中的应用综述