能源转型下新能源电力系统概率风险评估

别朝红; 潘超琼; 陈叶; 李芙蓉

doi:10.7652/xjtuxb202107001

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能源转型下新能源电力系统概率风险评估

更新时间：2025-07-09

- 能源转型下新能源电力系统概率风险评估
- Probabilistic Risk Assessment of New Energy Power System in the Context of Energy Transition: a Review
- 西安交通大学学报 2021年55卷第7期页码：1-11
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西安交通大学电力设备电气绝缘国家重点实验室,西安,710049
  2. 西安交通大学陕西省智能电网重点实验室,西安,710049
  3. 西安交通大学电气工程学院,西安,710049
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  : 2021-03-10。作者简介: 别朝红(1970—),女,教授。基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51637008)
- DOI：10.7652/xjtuxb202107001
  中图分类号： TM73
- 网络首发：2021-07-10，
  
  纸质出版：2021
- 稿件说明：
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别朝红, 潘超琼, 陈叶, 等. 能源转型下新能源电力系统概率风险评估[J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2021,55(7):1-11.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of New Energy Power System in the Context of Energy Transition: a Review[J]. 2021, 55(7): 1-11.
别朝红, 潘超琼, 陈叶, 等. 能源转型下新能源电力系统概率风险评估[J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2021,55(7):1-11. DOI： 10.7652/xjtuxb202107001.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of New Energy Power System in the Context of Energy Transition: a Review[J]. 2021, 55(7): 1-11. DOI： 10.7652/xjtuxb202107001.

摘要

当前我国正处在能源转型的关键时期

在碳达峰和碳中和背景下

高比例新能源接入带来的不确定性使得确定性的风险评估已经无法保障电力系统的安全可靠运行。概率风险评估是评估高度不确定性系统风险的有效工具

其旨在突破确定性风险评估基于风险长期平均数字特征无法对高概率低损失和低概率高损失事件进行区分的局限。本文首先阐述了新能源电力系统概率风险评估的迫切性

然后对其进行了概述

包括概率风险评估的含义、应用现状以及新能源电力系统概率风险评估的特点

继而在风险评估研究现状的基础上

从风险建模、评估、分析和决策4个层面论述了新能源出力模型和故障模式、概率风险评估核心算法和计算效率、多层次概率指标体系和薄弱环节识别方法、运行方式安排和设备备用规划决策等方面的关键问题。未来亟需从新能源出力与负荷之间的时空相关性以及新能源的相依故障模式、概率风险全分布评估的算法和全面提高计算效率的方法、基于分割多目标风险分析理论建立面向不同风险类型的多层次指标及薄弱环节识别体系、在优化模型的目标函数或者约束条件中计及概率风险指标的决策方法等方向展开研究。

Abstract

In the context of energy transition in China

the uncertainty from a high proportion of new energy has made the deterministic risk assessment unable to ensure safe and reliable operation of power system under the ‘carbon peaking and carbon neutral' background. Probabilistic risk assessment is an effective tool to evaluate the risk of high uncertainty system

which aims to break through the limitation that the deterministic risk assessment based on the long-term average numerical characteristics of risk cannot distinguish the events with high probability and low loss from those with low probability and high loss. Firstly

this paper expounds the urgency for probabilistic risk assessment of new energy power system(PRANEPS). Then

PRANEPS is summarized including the meaning

application status of probabilistic risk assessment and characteristics of PRANEPS. Further

on the basis of the research status of risk assessment

this paper discusses the key issues of PRANEPS from four aspects of risk modeling

risk assessment

risk analysis and risk decision

such as the output model and failure mode of new energy

the core algorithm and calculation efficiency of probabilistic risk assessment

the multi-level probability index system and weak part recognition method

the operation mode and equipment spare planning decision-making. In the future

it is urgent to study temporal and spatial correlation between new energy and load

as well as dependent failure mode of new energy

probabilistic risk full distribution algorithm and improved calculation efficiency method

multi-level index and weak part recognition system for different risk types based on partitioned multi-objective risk method(PMRM)

decision-making method considering probabilistic risk index in the objective function or constraint of optimization model.

关键词

Keywords

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