效能评估可信度的客观度量方法

王军 1; 2; 李建勋 2; 王兴 1; 戚宗锋 1; 3

doi:10.7652/xjtuxb201802006

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

效能评估可信度的客观度量方法

更新时间：2025-07-09

- 效能评估可信度的客观度量方法
- An Objective Measurement Method for Credibility of Effectiveness Evaluation
- 西安交通大学学报 2018年52卷第2期页码：37-44
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国洛阳电子装备试验中心,河南,洛阳,471000
  2. 上海交通大学自动化系,上海,200240
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  : 2017-09-13。作者简介: 王军(1985—),男,硕士生;李建勋(通信作者),男,教授,博士生导师。基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(61673265);国家(973计划)资助项目(61331903);电子信息系统复杂电磁环境效应国家重点实验室开放课题(CEMEE2013K0301A)
- DOI：10.7652/xjtuxb201802006
  中图分类号： TP18
- 网络首发：2018-02-10，
  
  纸质出版：2018
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
王军 1, 2, 李建勋 2, 等. 效能评估可信度的客观度量方法[J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2018,52(2):37-44.

An Objective Measurement Method for Credibility of Effectiveness Evaluation[J]. 2018, 52(2): 37-44.
王军 1, 2, 李建勋 2, 等. 效能评估可信度的客观度量方法[J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2018,52(2):37-44. DOI： 10.7652/xjtuxb201802006.

An Objective Measurement Method for Credibility of Effectiveness Evaluation[J]. 2018, 52(2): 37-44. DOI： 10.7652/xjtuxb201802006.

摘要

针对目前装备系统效能评估可信度无法客观度量的问题

提出了一种客观度量评估可信度方法。该方法从评估数据、评估模型及单样本分类置信度3个方面描述评估可信度。在计算评估数据可信度方面

通过分析评估数据的不确定性确定评估数据的可信度; 在计算评估模型可信度方面

将模式分类准确率转化为评估模型可信度度量指标; 在计算单样本分类置信度方面

根据不同类别样本在高维空间的分布关系

给出了适用多数分类算法的分类置信度计算方法; 进一步通过可信度传播模型将以上3个方面进行综合

得到综合评估可信度。对雷达抗干扰效能评估可信度的仿真结果表明:该方法不使用专家经验知识

能够客观度量效能评估的可信度

其结果不受评估主体影响

解决了不同专家对同一装备给出的效能评估可信度不同的问题; 与现有主观方法相比

准确率提高了10%。

Abstract

An objective measurement method for the credibility of evaluation from three aspects: evaluation data

evaluation model and single sample confidence is proposed to solve the problem that effectiveness evaluation credibility cannot be objectively measured for equipment systems. The credibility of evaluation data is determined by analyzing the uncertainty of the evaluation data; and the model classification accuracy is transformed into a credibility index of the evaluation model. A method to calculate the classification confidence is proposed based on the distribution of the different types of samples in a space with high dimension and the method is applicable to most classification algorithms. These aspects are then integrated through a credibility propagation model to get a comprehensive credibility. Finally

the concrete application of the method is discussed in detail by taking the credibility calculation of effectiveness evaluation of a radar anti-jamming efficiency as an example. It is found from the analysis of the application that the method can objectively measure the credibility of effectiveness evaluation without the needs of the knowledge of experts

the results are not affected by evaluation subjects

and the problem that different evaluation experts give different credibility for the same equipment effectiveness evaluation is solved. The calculation accuracy of the proposed method is 10% higher than that of an existing subjective method.

关键词

Keywords

references

王秀丽, 张择策, 侯雨伸. 主动配电网多维度静态安全评估 [J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2016, 50(8): 110-116.

WANG Xiuli, ZHANG Zece, HOU Yushen. Multidimensional static security assessment for active distribution network [J]. Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University, 2016, 50(8): 110-116.

CAO X, GU C. Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model [J]. Springer Plus, 2016, 5(1): 1-14.

李震, 董鸿鹏, 姜本清. 作战仿真概率模型可信性测试 [J]. 计算机与现代化, 2016(1): 82-86.

LI Zhen, DONG H P, JIANG B Q. Credibility test of probability model in warfare simulation system [J]. Computer Modernization, 2016(1): 82-86.

PAWLIKOWSKI K, JEONG H D J, LEE J S R. On credibility of simulation studies of telecommunication networks [J]. IEEE Communications Magazine, 2002, 40(1): 132-139.

ANDEL T R, YASINSAC A. On the credibility of manet simulations [J]. Computer, 2006, 39(7): 48-54.

汪连栋, 曾勇虎, 申绪涧. 电子信息系统复杂电磁环境效应研究路线图 [M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2013: 8.

宋彦学, 张志峰, 齐立辉. 基于元评估的武器装备作战效能评估可信性研究 [J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2009(S1): 128-131.

SONG Yanxue, ZHANG Zhifeng, QI Lihui. Research on the creditability of operational effectiveness evaluation with weapon equipment based on meta-evaluation [J]. Fire Control and Command Control, 2009(S1): 128-131.

黄炎焱. 武器装备作战效能稳健评估方法及其支撑技术研究 [D]. 长沙: 国防科学技术大学, 2006: 22-25.

姜斌, 黎湘, 王宏强, 等. 模式分类方法研究 [J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2007, 29(1): 99-102.

JIANG Bin, LI Xiang, WANG Hongqiang, et al. Methods for pattern classification [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2007, 29(1): 99-102.

张西宁, 雷威, 李兵. 主分量分析和隐马尔科夫模型结合的轴承监测诊断方法 [J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2017, 51(6): 1-7.

ZHANG Xining, LEI Wei, LI Bing. Bearing fault detection and diagnosis method based on principal component analysis and hidden Markov model [J]. Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University, 2017, 51(6): 1-7.

WANG T, QI J, XU H, et al. Fault diagnosis method based on FFT-RPCA-SVM for cascaded-multilevel inverter [J]. ISA Transactions, 2016, 60: 156-163.

YIN Z, LIU J, KRUEGER M, et al. Introduction of SVM algorithms and recent applications about fault diagnosis and other aspects [C]∥Proceedings of 2015 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Informatics. Piscataway, NJ, SUA: IEEE, 2015: 550-555.

张鹏, 陈湘军, 阮雅端, 等. 采用稀疏SIFT特征的车型识别方法 [J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2015, 49(12): 137-143.ZHANG Peng, CHEN Xiangjun, RUAN Yaduan, et al. A vehicle classification technique based on sparse coding [J]. Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University, 2015, 49(12): 137-143.

张小利. 图像融合及其性能评估若干问题研究 [D]. 长春: 吉林大学, 2016: 115-119.

王颖, 李金, 王磊, 等. 基于机器学习的microRNA预测方法研究进展 [J]. 计算机科学, 2015, 42(2): 7-13.

WANG Ying, LI Jin, WANG Lei, et al. Research and progress of microRNA prediction methods on mach in learning [J]. Computer Science, 2015, 42(2): 7-13.

赵行. SVM分类器置信度的研究 [D]. 北京: 北京邮电大学, 2010: 8-20.

薛磊, 杨晓敏, 吴炜, 等. 一种基于KNN与改进SVM的车牌字符识别算法 [J]. 四川大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 43(5): 1031-1036.

XUUE Lei, YANG Xiaomin, WU Wei, et al. An algorithm based on KNN and improved SVM for license plate recognition [J]. Journal of Sichuan University(Natural Science Edition), 2006, 43(5): 1031-1036.

柯宏发, 陈永光, 刘思峰. 电子装备试验数据的不确定性分析方法 [J]. 应用基础与工程科学学报, 2011, 19(4): 653-663.

KE Hongfa, CHEN Yongguang, LIU Sifeng. New method of uncertainties analysis for electronic equipment test data [J]. Journal of Basic Science and Engineering, 2011, 19(4): 653-663.

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

超临界二氧化碳向心透平轮背间隙内风阻损失及流动特性研究

张角凹坑气膜孔对双层壁气膜冷却特性的影响

语义区分和子图整合驱动的知识图谱表示学习方法

混合电解槽阵列协同的风光耦合制氢系统双层多目标优化

采用机器学习的大规模并行程序I/O性能建模与预测方法