针对传统的状态权重分配方法造成历史时刻权重过大的问题,提出一种采用滑动窗口与克里金插值算法的复杂系统可靠性评估方法。利用滑动窗口模型,基于任何给定的窗口大小的移动平均误差都会随着接近时间序列的实际窗口大小而减小的思想,确定最优的滑动窗口大小,对状态权重在线更新;借助Kriging的思想,对滑动窗口内安全性状态的权重进行重新自适应调整;使用证据推理算法融合滑动窗口内安全性状态的自适应权重获取复杂系统整体的可靠性评估结果。采用轴承的退化数据进行验证,实验结果表明:与提取水平方向和竖直方向有效值的方法进行对比,所提方法得到了更加综合直观的结果;传统的状态权重分配方法均方误差为0.028 1
所提方法的均方误差为0.016 7
均方误差更小,所提方法更有效。
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