Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Gas Turbine Exhaust Diffuser

WANG Jiajun; FAN Zhizekai; YAN Chenxi; YAO Jiaxu; SU Pengfei; KONG Xianglin; FANG Yu; LI Jun

doi:10.7652/xjtuxb202509016

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Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Gas Turbine Exhaust Diffuser

更新时间：2025-09-11

- Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Gas Turbine Exhaust Diffuser
- Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University Vol. 59, Issue 9, Pages: 165-176(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.西安交通大学叶轮机械研究所， 710049，西安
  2.东方电气集团东方汽轮机有限公司， 618000，四川德阳
  3.清洁高效透平动力装备全国重点实验室， 618000，四川德阳
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.7652/xjtuxb202509016
  CLC： TK474.7
- Received：21 March 2025，
  
  Online First：18 April 2025，
  
  Published：10 September 2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
WANG Jiajun, FAN Zhizekai, YAN Chenxi, et al. Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Gas Turbine Exhaust Diffuser[J]. Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University, 2025, 59(9): 165-176.
DOI：

WANG Jiajun, FAN Zhizekai, YAN Chenxi, et al. Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Gas Turbine Exhaust Diffuser[J]. Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University, 2025, 59(9): 165-176. DOI： 10.7652/xjtuxb202509016.

摘要

燃气轮机涡轮排气扩压器的几何参数偏差与运行工况波动会导致气动性能呈现显著不确定性，从而影响机组性能，结合拉丁超立方采样、非嵌入式多项式混沌展开和Sobol' indices敏感性分析方法建立了扩压器气动性能不确定性量化与敏感性分析系统，研究并量化了扩张角、进口旋流角与进口速度对静压恢复系数、总压损失系数及动压转换系数的影响。仿真结果表明：考虑进口速度、进口旋流角和扩张角的不确定性时，气动性能参数的统计分布均呈现正态分布。支撑板附近区域对参数扰动最敏感，以设计值为基准，静压恢复系数不确定性最大相对偏差达50.1%。静压恢复系数均值较设计值增加2.654%，偏离设计值10%的概率为11.04%；总压损失系数均值仅增加0.111%，但偏离概率高达25.22%；动压转换系数均值增加2.023%，偏离概率为0.63%。敏感性分析结果表明：进口旋流角是静压恢复系数和总压损失系数不确定性的主导变量，其贡献为72.84%和98.34%；扩张角是动压转换系数不确定性的主导变量，方差占比为65.43%；与主效应相比，进口速度与二阶交互效应影响可忽略。

Abstract

Deviations in the geometric parameters and operational fluctuations of gas turbine exhaust diffusers can lead to significant uncertainties in aerodynamic performance

thereby affecting the overall performance of the unit. This paper establishes a system for quantifying uncertainty and analyzing sensitivity in the aerodynamic performance of diffusers

utilizing Latin hypercube sampling

non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion

and Sobol' indices sensitivity analysis method. The study quantifies the effects of divergence angle

inlet swirl angle

and inlet velocity on the static pressure recovery coefficient

total pressure loss coefficient

and dynamic pressure conversion coefficient. The results indicate that when considering uncertainties in inlet velocity

inlet swirl angle

and divergence angle

the statistical distribution of aerodynamic performance parameters follows a normal distribution. The flow field near the strut is most sensitive to parameter perturbations

with the maximum deviation in the static pressure recovery coefficient reaching 50.1%. The mean value of the static pressure recovery coefficient increases by 2.654% compared to the design value

and the probability of deviating by 10% from the design value is 11.04%. The mean value of the total pressure loss coefficient increases by only 0.111%

but the probability of deviation is as high as 25.22%. The mean value of the dynamic pressure conversion coefficient increases by 2.023%

with a probability of deviation of 0.63%. Sobol' indices sensitivity analysis results show that the inlet swirl angle is the dominant variable for uncertainties in the static pressure recovery coefficient and total pressure loss coefficient

contributing 72.84% and 98.34%

respectively. The divergence angle is the dominant variable for uncertainties in the dynamic pressure conversion coefficient

accounting for 65.43% of the variance. Compared to the main effect

the contributions of inlet velocity and second-order interaction effects are negligible.

关键词

Keywords

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