Time-Dependent Kinematic Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for the Quick Mechanism of the Tap-Changer

DUAN Jinyan; ZHAO Qiangqiang; WANG Ke; LI Geqi; ZHANG Jinhua; HONG Jun

doi:10.7652/xjtuxb202310012

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Time-Dependent Kinematic Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for the Quick Mechanism of the Tap-Changer

更新时间：2025-05-08

- Time-Dependent Kinematic Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for the Quick Mechanism of the Tap-Changer
- Vol. 57, Issue 10, Pages: 121-131(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西安交通大学机械工程学院,西安,710049
  2. 西安交通大学现代设计及转子轴承系统教育部重点实验室,西安,710049
  3. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京,100192
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.7652/xjtuxb202310012
  CLC： TH122
- Online First：10 October 2023，
  
  Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
DUAN Jinyan, ZHAO Qiangqiang, WANG Ke, et al. Time-Dependent Kinematic Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for the Quick Mechanism of the Tap-Changer[J]. 2023, 57(10): 121-131.
DOI：

DUAN Jinyan, ZHAO Qiangqiang, WANG Ke, et al. Time-Dependent Kinematic Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for the Quick Mechanism of the Tap-Changer[J]. 2023, 57(10): 121-131. DOI： 10.7652/xjtuxb202310012.

摘要

为提高考虑运动失效参数影响的快速机构的运动精度

提出了一种基于首次穿越法的快速机构时变运动可靠性与灵敏度分析方法。首先

分析了快速机构运动的失效因素

明确了零部件加工与装配等随机误差对机构运动精度的影响; 接着

根据储能过程的平面机构运动方程

利用矢量环法构建了快速机构的运动误差极限状态函数

建立了时变运动可靠性分析模型; 然后

联合一阶线性估计、高维高斯条件分布以及一阶高斯截断矩特性

推导了一种新的时变运动可靠性首次穿越率解析公式; 最后

结合数值积分求解方法

得到了快速机构时变运动的失效概率序列与灵敏度。仿真结果表明:在保障快速机构运动精度的过程中

应重点关注机构中的拨钉定位误差及偏心凸轮尺寸公差; 所提方法得到的时变运动失效概率与蒙特卡罗法的计算结果相接近

但其计算成本却仅为蒙特卡罗法的0.04%。

Abstract

To improve the kinematic precision of a quick mechanism by considering influence of motion failure parameters

a time-dependent kinematic reliability and sensitivity analysis method for the quick mechanism was proposed based on the first-passage method. First

the factors contributing to random errors in parts processing and assembly were identified via a comprehensive analysis of the failure factors affecting the kinematic precision of the quick mechanism. Using the vector loop method and the motion equation of the planar mechanism during the energy storage process

a limit-state function for motion error was constructed

forming the basis for establishing a time-dependent kinematic reliability analysis model. Subsequently

a novel analytical formula for the outcrossing rate of time-dependent kinematic reliability was developed by employing the first-order linear estimation

conditional multivariate Gaussian distribution

and first-order moment of the truncated multivariate Gaussian distribution. Finally

the time-dependent kinematic failure probability sequence and sensitivity analysis for the quick mechanism were obtained using numerical integration methods. Simulation results show that particular attention should be given to the positioning error of the pin and the dimensional tolerance of the eccentric cam in the process of improving the kinematic precision of the quick mechanism. The proposed method yields time-dependent kinematic failure probabilities that are close to those obtained using the Monte Carlo method

but with a significantly reduced simulation cost(only 0.04% of the Monte Carlo method).

关键词

Keywords

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