Energy Supply Planning of the Five Northwest Provinces in 2030 Under Carbon Intensity and Water Resource Constraints

SI Qibu; QIU Shuo; BI Shengshan; WU Jiangtao

doi:10.7652/xjtuxb202205004

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Energy Supply Planning of the Five Northwest Provinces in 2030 Under Carbon Intensity and Water Resource Constraints

更新时间：2025-07-09

- Energy Supply Planning of the Five Northwest Provinces in 2030 Under Carbon Intensity and Water Resource Constraints
- Vol. 56, Issue 5, Pages: 31-42(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  西安交通大学热流科学与工程教育部重点实验室,西安,710049
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.7652/xjtuxb202205004
  CLC： TK01
- Online First：10 May 2022，
  
  Published：2022
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
SI Qibu, QIU Shuo, BI Shengshan, et al. Energy Supply Planning of the Five Northwest Provinces in 2030 Under Carbon Intensity and Water Resource Constraints[J]. 2022, 56(5): 31-42.
DOI：

SI Qibu, QIU Shuo, BI Shengshan, et al. Energy Supply Planning of the Five Northwest Provinces in 2030 Under Carbon Intensity and Water Resource Constraints[J]. 2022, 56(5): 31-42. DOI： 10.7652/xjtuxb202205004.

摘要

为了对碳达峰和水资源短缺形势下中国西北五省能源供给侧的合理配置进行全面把控

以便推进西北五省能源转型

实现低碳发展

以2017年为基期

以2018—2030年为预测期

利用长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型对西北五省的终端能源需求量进行预测分析

从供给侧出发

研究了西北五省2018—2030年在碳强度约束和水资源约束下的能源结构变革、能源供给规划、能源调度规划和产能建设规划。结果表明

发展可再生能源是未来西北五省实现碳达峰和碳中和的主攻方向

一次能源结构中原煤、油气和非化石能源的比例将从2017年的6:3:1变为2030年的3:3:4

终端能源结构中煤炭、油气和电力的比例将从2017年的5:3:2变为2030年的1:5:4; 能源生产方面表明煤炭产量仍呈上升态势

石油产量保持低速上升的趋势

天然气的增产潜力大; 电气化是未来发展的趋势

电力供应能力将持续增强

西北五省水资源的短缺将进一步遏制火电的发展。该研究可望在合理配置水资源的基础上为西北五省的低碳发展提供参考。

Abstract

For comprehensive control over rational allocation at the energy supply side

better energy transformation and low-carbon development in the five northwest provinces in the context of peak CO

emissions and water shortage

the LEAP model is used to predict the end energy demands of these provinces by taking 2017 as the base year and 2018-2030 as predictive period. Moreover

their energy structure reform

energy supply planning

energy dispatching planning and capacity construction planning in 2018-2030 are studied from th

e supply side under carbon intensity and water resource constraints. The results show that developing renewable energy will be the main mean for these provinces to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. In terms of energy mix

the proportion of raw coal

oil and gas

and non-fossil energy among primary energy will change from 6:3:1 in 2017 to 3:3:4 in 2030 and that of the coal

oil and gas

and electricity among the end-use energy will change from 5:3:2 in 2017 to 1:5:4 in 2030. In terms of energy production

the coal production is still on the rise

the oil production keeps a low growth trend

and the natural gas has great potential to increase production. Electrification is the trend of future development

power supply capacity will continue to increase

the shortage of water resources in these provinces will further curb the development of thermal power. This study is expected to provide theoretical reference for the low-carbon development of these provinces under the premise of rational allocation of water resources.

关键词

Keywords

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