Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis under Uncertainty

闫永业; 石博强

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Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis under Uncertainty

更新时间：2025-12-08

- Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis under Uncertainty
- Vol. 41, Issue 11, Pages: 1303-1306(2007)
- 作者机构：
  
  北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京,100083
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TB114.3
- Online First：10 November 2007，
  
  Published：2007
- 稿件说明：
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闫永业, 石博强. Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis under Uncertainty[J]. 2007, 41(11): 1303-1306.
DOI：

闫永业, 石博强. Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis under Uncertainty[J]. 2007, 41(11): 1303-1306. DOI：

摘要

针对机械设备在使用过程中受到的时变不确定性因素(如荷载、环境及材料自身等因素)影响

建立了基于随机微分方程的时变可靠性预测模型

提出了考虑不确定性因素的时变可靠度计算方法.该方法考虑了机械零件强度和工作应力的演化过程

能够计算出机械零件在任意时刻的可靠度

解决了用概率设计方法设计的机械零件仅知道其设计可靠度而不知道零件在使用期间任意时刻可靠度的问题

可以对复杂不确定性因素作用下的设备进行时变可靠性评估

进而对使用期的可靠性指标变化趋势进行预测

为设备的维修和维护提供参考.

Abstract

Uncertainties inherent in loads

environment and material properties always exist during machine lifetime. A time-dependent model incorporating such uncertainties based on stochastic differential equation theory is presented

which provides a coherent framework for calculating time-dependent reliability under such external uncertainties leading to uncertainties in stress and strength. Therefore

the reliability for all time horizons can be gained via this model to predict the uncertain evolution and movement or the trend of machine reliability. This research can also provide a basis for maintenance of machine.

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references

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