An Improved Algorithm for Probabilistic Production Simulation of Power Systems with Wind Power

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An Improved Algorithm for Probabilistic Production Simulation of Power Systems with Wind Power

更新时间：2025-07-09

- An Improved Algorithm for Probabilistic Production Simulation of Power Systems with Wind Power
- Vol. 46, Issue 6, Pages: 115-121(2012)
- 作者机构：
  
  西安交通大学电气工程学院,西安,710049
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TM715
- Online First：10 June 2012，
  
  Published：2012
- 稿件说明：
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An Improved Algorithm for Probabilistic Production Simulation of Power Systems with Wind Power[J]. 2012, 46(6): 115-121.
DOI：

An Improved Algorithm for Probabilistic Production Simulation of Power Systems with Wind Power[J]. 2012, 46(6): 115-121. DOI：

摘要

针对传统随机生产模拟忽略负荷的时序特性而难以考虑机组启停、备用、调峰等相关动态费用的问题

将转移频率分析纳入随机生产模拟框架中

形成了改进等效电量频率法.该方法通过等效负荷频率曲线(ELFC)的卷积考虑机组启停

将生产成本分析的范畴拓宽到动态费用的计算.根据所提算法和含风电的EPRI-36算例

比较了风电并网前后系统可靠性指标、燃料成本、环境成本和动态费用等的变化

并研究了风电装机规模对动态费用率的影响.结果表明

相对于动态费用的增加

风电对系统可靠性与经济性的改善是主要的

但动态费用率随着风电规模的扩大而提高.

Abstract

The volatility and intermittency of wind power may increase dynamic cost concerned with unit startup

shutdown

reserve and peak regulation. The traditional probabilistic production simulation ignores chronological load characters

which cannot account for the dynamic cost. To solve this difficulty

the transition frequency analysis is brought into the probabilistic production simulation framework

and a modified equivalent energy and frequency function method is proposed. This method takes unit startup and shutdown into account by convoluting equivalent load frequency curves(ELFCs)

and therefore includes the dynamic cost in the consideration of production costing. With the proposed algorithm and the wind power integrated EPRI-36 test system

the impact of the wind farms on reliability metric and more holistic cost information including fuel cost

environmental cost and dynamic cost is discussed

and the impact of the wind power scale on dynamic cost rate is also studied. It indicates that with the wind power integrated

despite more dynamic cost

the system reliability is improved and the total cost is reduced

and the dynamic cost rate increases with the wind power expansion.

关键词

Keywords

references

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