Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Turbine Blade Tip Using Adaptive Sampling

FAN Zhizekai; XU Chengtian; ZHANG Kaiyuan; LI Zhigang; LI Jun

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Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Turbine Blade Tip Using Adaptive Sampling

更新时间：2026-05-28

- Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Turbine Blade Tip Using Adaptive Sampling
- JOURNAL OF XI’AN JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY (2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院，710049，西安
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： V232.4
- Received：20 March 2026，
  
  Revised：2026-05-28，
  
  Accepted：28 May 2026，
- 稿件说明：
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FAN Zhizekai, XU Chengtian, ZHANG Kaiyuan, et al. Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Turbine Blade Tip Using Adaptive Sampling[J/OL]. JOURNAL OF XI’AN JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY, 2026.
DOI：

FAN Zhizekai, XU Chengtian, ZHANG Kaiyuan, et al. Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis on Aerodynamic Performance of Turbine Blade Tip Using Adaptive Sampling[J/OL]. JOURNAL OF XI’AN JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY, 2026. DOI：

摘要

为精确量化几何结构偏差与运行工况波动等多源不确定性，对燃气涡轮动叶叶顶气热性能的影响，发展了一种Sobol敏感性指数自适应采样多项式混沌方法，通过测试函数验证了在精度相近条件下可有效减少计算样本数，提高不确定性量化效率。开展了几何偏差（叶顶间隙、气膜孔孔径）和工况波动（主流进口总压、总温、气膜冷却吹风比）对GE-E

涡轮动叶气膜冷却凹槽状叶顶气动性能和气膜冷却效率的不确定性量化和敏感性分析研究，探明了影响涡轮叶顶气热性能的关键参数。研究结果表明：在多源不确定性输入作用下，叶顶间隙泄漏量和下游总压损失系数高于110%设计值的概率分别为40.48%和17.28%，气动性能鲁棒性较差；叶顶气膜冷却效率低于90%设计值的概率仅为12.74%，冷却性能鲁棒性较强。叶顶间隙主导了气动性能的不确定性，对泄漏量和总压损失系数的总效应方差占比均在90%以上；对于传热冷却性能，叶顶间隙依然是主导因素，方差占比达52.43%；气膜孔孔径和主流总压的作用也不可忽略，方差占比分别为24.91%和12.52%。该研究可为涡轮叶顶气热性能鲁棒性优化提供参考。

Abstract

In order to accurately quantify the impact of multi-source uncertainties such as geometric structural deviations and operating conditions fluctuations on the aerothermal performance of gas turbine blade tips

an adaptive sampling polynomial chaos expansion method based on Sobol sensitivity indices is developed. Verified by test functions

the method effectively reduces the number of computational samples under comparable accuracy

thus improving the efficiency of uncertainty quantification. Focused on the GE-E

turbine blade film cooling squealer tip

uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are performed to investigate the effects of geometric deviations (tip clearance

film cooling hole diameter) and operating condition fluctuations (mainstream inlet total pressure

total temperature

film cooling blowing ratio) on aerodynamic performance and film cooling effectiveness of the blade tip. The key parameters governing the aerothermal performance of the turbine blade tip are identified. The results show that

under the multi-source uncertain inputs

the probabilities of tip clearance leakage mass flow rate and downstream total pressure loss coefficient over 110% of their design values are 40.48% and 17.28% respectively

indicating poor robustness of aerodynamic performance. The probability of film cooling effectiveness at the tip below 90% of its design value is only 12.74%

demonstrating strong robustness of

cooling performance. Tip clearance dominates the uncertainty in aerodynamic performance

with its total effect variance proportion exceeding 90% for both leakage mass flow rate and total pressure loss coefficient. For heat transfer and cooling performance

tip clearance remains the dominant factor

with a variance proportion of 52.43%. The effects of the film cooling hole diameter and mainstream total pressure are also non-negligible

accounting for 24.91% and 12.52% of the variance proportion

respectively. This research can provide a reference for the robustness optimization of turbine blade tip aerothermal performance.

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