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为了进一步研究反应堆严重事故进程中热工参数对源项释放的影响,识别对其影响较大的物理过程,从而进一步改进和发展数值模型以提高计算精度降低不确定性,以第三代压水堆为对象,利用一体化严重事故分析程序ISAA对大破口失水事故导致的严重事故开展了数值分析研究,并基于Wilks公式利用自主开发的不确定性程序代码SAUP对17个热工参数进行了拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)执行批量计算,对目标输出(FoM)即氢气与裂变产物的释放进行了不确定性与敏感性分析。结果表明:在热工参数的不确定性范围内,氧化产氢以及裂变产物的释放呈现正态分布且存在较大的不确定带,包壳氧化层的失效温度、堆芯碎片尺寸以及碎片孔隙率对高挥发性裂变产物的释放有较为显著的相关性。该研究有助于理解反应堆严重事故中热工参数与源项之间的复杂联系,同时对核电厂安全系统的设计以及严重事故的预防与缓解具有参考意义。
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